EXPECTED DA from July 2014 – It’s Difficult to Make Predictions This Time…!
Twice every year, rumours and predictions about Dearness Allowance begin to circulate among Central Government employees. They read the same material over and over again to deduct something. It is so interesting.
The expectation has gradually increased over the past five years. It has become a habit of many to try to analyse as far as their minds could think and come up with possible predictions regarding the outcomes. Usually, their predictions would come true!
But this time, predicting wouldn’t be that easy.
Until now, Dearness Allowance was travelling at a uniform pace. It started at 16 and had gradually risen to 22, 27, 35, 45, 51, 58, 65, 72, 80, 90 and had reached 100. It is doubtful if it would continue at the same pace now.
It is good if they could control price rise. But, instead, what happens if they chose to control AICPIN?
The AICPIN of January 2014 has come down by two points. If the same trend continues, remember that it would rise only by 3%.
Let’s assume that inflation remains under control. If there is also no increase in the AICPIN, chances are there will only be 5% increase.
It is election-time now. This means money circulation will increase in the economy. Since price rise is given the greatest importance, the chances of increase in AICPIN seem to be very low.
In short, one can be very sure that this year’s second instalment is going to be very thrilling.
Our expectation is 5%.